# Regression (OLS) - overview

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Regression (OLS)
Binomial test for a single proportion
Paired sample $t$ test
McNemar's test
Independent variablesIndependent variableIndependent variableIndependent variable
One or more quantitative of interval or ratio level and/or one or more categorical with independent groups, transformed into code variablesNone2 paired groups2 paired groups
Dependent variableDependent variableDependent variableDependent variable
One quantitative of interval or ratio levelOne categorical with 2 independent groupsOne quantitative of interval or ratio levelOne categorical with 2 independent groups
Null hypothesisNull hypothesisNull hypothesisNull hypothesis
$F$ test for the complete regression model:
• $\beta_1 = \beta_2 = \ldots = \beta_K = 0$
or equivalenty
• The variance explained by all the independent variables together (the complete model) is 0 in the population: $\rho^2 = 0$
$t$ test for individual regression coefficient $\beta_k$:
• $\beta_k = 0$
in the regression equation $\mu_y = \beta_0 + \beta_1 \times x_1 + \beta_2 \times x_2 + \ldots + \beta_K \times x_K$
$\pi = \pi_0$
$\pi$ is the population proportion of "successes"; $\pi_0$ is the population proportion of successes according to the null hypothesis
$\mu = \mu_0$
$\mu$ is the unknown population mean of the difference scores; $\mu_0$ is the population mean of the difference scores according to the null hypothesis, which is usually 0

For each pair of scores, the data allow four options:

1. First score of pair is 0, second score of pair is 0
2. First score of pair is 0, second score of pair is 1 (switched)
3. First score of pair is 1, second score of pair is 0 (switched)
4. First score of pair is 1, second score of pair is 1
Null hypothesis is that for each pair of scores:
• P(first score of pair is 0 while second score of pair is 1) = P(first score of pair is 1 while second score of pair is 0)
That is, the probability that a pair of scores switches from 0 to 1 is the same as the probability that a pair of scores switches from 1 to 0.

Other formulations of the null hypothesis are :

• $\pi_1 = \pi_2$, where $\pi_1$ is the population proportion of ones in the first paired group and $\pi_2$ is the population proportion of ones in the second paired group
• For each pair of scores, P(first score of pair is 1) = P(second score of pair is 1)

Alternative hypothesisAlternative hypothesisAlternative hypothesisAlternative hypothesis
$F$ test for the complete regression model:
• not all population regression coefficients are 0
or equivalenty
• The variance explained by all the independent variables together (the complete model) is larger than 0 in the population: $\rho^2 > 0$
$t$ test for individual $\beta_k$:
• Two sided: $\beta_k \neq 0$
• Right sided: $\beta_k > 0$
• Left sided: $\beta_k < 0$
Two sided: $\pi \neq \pi_0$
Right sided: $\pi > \pi_0$
Left sided: $\pi < \pi_0$
Two sided: $\mu \neq \mu_0$
Right sided: $\mu > \mu_0$
Left sided: $\mu < \mu_0$

Alternative hypothesis is that for each pair of scores:

• P(first score of pair is 0 while second score of pair is 1) $\neq$ P(first score of pair is 1 while second score of pair is 0)
That is, the probability that a pair of scores switches from 0 to 1 is not the same as the probability that a pair of scores switches from 1 to 0.

Other formulations of the alternative hypothesis are that, for each pair of scores:

• $\pi_1 \neq \pi_2$
• For each pair of scores, P(first score of pair is 1) $\neq$ P(second score of pair is 1)

AssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptions
• In the population, the residuals are normally distributed at each combination of values of the independent variables
• In the population, the standard deviation $\sigma$ of the residuals is the same for each combination of values of the independent variables (homoscedasticity)
• In the population, the relationship between the independent variables and the mean of the dependent variable $\mu_y$ is linear. If this linearity assumption holds, the mean of the residuals is 0 for each combination of values of the independent variables
• The residuals are independent of one another
• Variables are measured without error
Also pay attention to:
• Multicollinearity
• Outliers
Sample is a simple random sample from the population. That is, observations are independent of one another
• Difference scores are normally distributed in the population
• Sample of difference scores is a simple random sample from the population of difference scores. That is, difference scores are independent of one another
Population of difference scores can be conceived of as the difference scores we would find if we would apply our study (e.g., applying an intervention and measuring pre-post scores) to all individuals in the population.
Sample of pairs is a simple random sample from the population of pairs. That is, pairs are independent of one another
Test statisticTest statisticTest statisticTest statistic
$F$ test for the complete regression model:
• \begin{aligned}[t] F &= \dfrac{\sum (\hat{y}_j - \bar{y})^2 / K}{\sum (y_j - \hat{y}_j)^2 / (N - K - 1)}\\ &= \dfrac{\mbox{sum of squares model} / \mbox{degrees of freedom model}}{\mbox{sum of squares error} / \mbox{degrees of freedom error}}\\ &= \dfrac{\mbox{mean square model}}{\mbox{mean square error}} \end{aligned}
where $\hat{y}_j$ is the predicted score on the dependent variable $y$ of subject $j$, $\bar{y}$ is the mean of $y$, $y_j$ is the score on $y$ of subject $j$, $N$ is the total sample size, and $K$ is the number of independent variables
$t$ test for individual $\beta_k$:
• $t = \dfrac{b_k}{SE_{b_k}}$
• If only one independent variable:
$SE_{b_1} = \dfrac{\sqrt{\sum (y_j - \hat{y}_j)^2 / (N - 2)}}{\sqrt{\sum (x_j - \bar{x})^2}} = \dfrac{s}{\sqrt{\sum (x_j - \bar{x})^2}}$, with $s$ the sample standard deviation of the residuals, $x_j$ the score of subject $j$ on the independent variable $x$, and $\bar{x}$ the mean of $x$. For models with more than one independent variable, computing $SE_{b_k}$ becomes complicated
Note 1: mean square model is also known as mean square regression; mean square error is also known as mean square residual
Note 2: if only one independent variable ($K = 1$), the $F$ test for the complete regression model is equivalent to the two sided $t$ test for $\beta_1$
$X$ = number of successes in the sample$t = \dfrac{\bar{y} - \mu_0}{s / \sqrt{N}}$
$\bar{y}$ is the sample mean of the difference scores, $\mu_0$ is the population mean of the difference scores according to H0, $s$ is the sample standard deviation of the difference scores, $N$ is the sample size (number of difference scores).

The denominator $s / \sqrt{N}$ is the standard error of the sampling distribution of $\bar{y}$. The $t$ value indicates how many standard errors $\bar{y}$ is removed from $\mu_0$
$X^2 = \dfrac{(b - c)^2}{b + c}$
$b$ is the number of pairs in the sample for which the first score is 0 while the second score is 1, and $c$ is the number of pairs in the sample for which the first score is 1 while the second score is 0
Sample standard deviation of the residuals $s$n.a.n.a.n.a.
\begin{aligned} s &= \sqrt{\dfrac{\sum (y_j - \hat{y}_j)^2}{N - K - 1}}\\ &= \sqrt{\dfrac{\mbox{sum of squares error}}{\mbox{degrees of freedom error}}}\\ &= \sqrt{\mbox{mean square error}} \end{aligned}---
Sampling distribution of $F$ and of $t$ if H0 were trueSampling distribution of $X$ if H0 were trueSampling distribution of $t$ if H0 were trueSampling distribution of $X^2$ if H0 were true
Sampling distribution of $F$:
• $F$ distribution with $K$ (df model, numerator) and $N - K - 1$ (df error, denominator) degrees of freedom
Sampling distribution of $t$:
• $t$ distribution with $N - K - 1$ (df error) degrees of freedom
Binomial($n$, $p$) distribution

Here $n = N$ (total sample size), and $p = \pi_0$ (population proportion according to the null hypothesis)
$t$ distribution with $N - 1$ degrees of freedom

If $b + c$ is large enough (say, > 20), approximately a chi-squared distribution with 1 degree of freedom.

If $b + c$ is small, the binomial($n$, $p$) distribution should be used, with $n = b + c$ and $p = 0.5$. In that case the test statistic becomes equal to $b$.

Significant?Significant?Significant?Significant?
$F$ test:
• Check if $F$ observed in sample is equal to or larger than critical value $F^*$ or
• Find $p$ value corresponding to observed $F$ and check if it is equal to or smaller than $\alpha$
$t$ Test two sided:
$t$ Test right sided:
$t$ Test left sided:
Two sided:
• Check if $X$ observed in sample is in the rejection region or
• Find two sided $p$ value corresponding to observed $X$ and check if it is equal to or smaller than $\alpha$
Right sided:
• Check if $X$ observed in sample is in the rejection region or
• Find right sided $p$ value corresponding to observed $X$ and check if it is equal to or smaller than $\alpha$
Left sided:
• Check if $X$ observed in sample is in the rejection region or
• Find left sided $p$ value corresponding to observed $X$ and check if it is equal to or smaller than $\alpha$
Two sided:
Right sided:
Left sided:
For test statistic $X^2$:
• Check if $X^2$ observed in sample is equal to or larger than critical value $X^{2*}$ or
• Find $p$ value corresponding to observed $X^2$ and check if it is equal to or smaller than $\alpha$
If $b + c$ is small, the table for the binomial distribution should be used, with as test statistic $b$:
• Check if $b$ observed in sample is in the rejection region or
• Find two sided $p$ value corresponding to observed $b$ and check if it is equal to or smaller than $\alpha$
$C\%$ confidence interval for $\beta_k$ and for $\mu_y$; $C\%$ prediction interval for $y_{new}$n.a.$C\%$ confidence interval for $\mu$n.a.
Confidence interval for $\beta_k$:
• $b_k \pm t^* \times SE_{b_k}$
• If only one independent variable:
$SE_{b_1} = \dfrac{\sqrt{\sum (y_j - \hat{y}_j)^2 / (N - 2)}}{\sqrt{\sum (x_j - \bar{x})^2}} = \dfrac{s}{\sqrt{\sum (x_j - \bar{x})^2}}$
Confidence interval for $\mu_y$, the population mean of $y$ given the values on the independent variables:
• $\hat{y} \pm t^* \times SE_{\hat{y}}$
• If only one independent variable:
$SE_{\hat{y}} = s \sqrt{\dfrac{1}{N} + \dfrac{(x^* - \bar{x})^2}{\sum (x_j - \bar{x})^2}}$
Prediction interval for $y_{new}$, the score on $y$ of a future respondent:
• $\hat{y} \pm t^* \times SE_{y_{new}}$
• If only one independent variable:
$SE_{y_{new}} = s \sqrt{1 + \dfrac{1}{N} + \dfrac{(x^* - \bar{x})^2}{\sum (x_j - \bar{x})^2}}$
In all formulas, the critical value $t^*$ is the value under the $t_{N - K - 1}$ distribution with the area $C / 100$ between $-t^*$ and $t^*$ (e.g. $t^*$ = 2.086 for a 95% confidence interval when df = 20).
-$\bar{y} \pm t^* \times \dfrac{s}{\sqrt{N}}$
where the critical value $t^*$ is the value under the $t_{N-1}$ distribution with the area $C / 100$ between $-t^*$ and $t^*$ (e.g. $t^*$ = 2.086 for a 95% confidence interval when df = 20)

The confidence interval for $\mu$ can also be used as significance test.
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Effect sizen.a.Effect sizen.a.
Complete model:
• Proportion variance explained $R^2$:
Proportion variance of the dependent variable $y$ explained by the sample regression equation (the independent variables):
\begin{align} R^2 &= \dfrac{\sum (\hat{y}_j - \bar{y})^2}{\sum (y_j - \bar{y})^2}\\ &= \dfrac{\mbox{sum of squares model}}{\mbox{sum of squares total}}\\ &= 1 - \dfrac{\mbox{sum of squares error}}{\mbox{sum of squares total}}\\ &= r(y, \hat{y})^2 \end{align}
$R^2$ is the proportion variance explained in the sample by the sample regression equation. It is a positively biased estimate of the proportion variance explained in the population by the population regression equation, $\rho^2$. If there is only one independent variable, $R^2 = r^2$: the correlation between the independent variable $x$ and dependent variable $y$ squared.
• Wherry's $R^2$ / shrunken $R^2$:
Corrects for the positive bias in $R^2$ and is equal to $$R^2_W = 1 - \frac{N - 1}{N - K - 1}(1 - R^2)$$
$R^2_W$ is a less biased estimate than $R^2$ of the proportion variance explained in the population by the population regression equation, $\rho^2$
• Stein's $R^2$:
Estimates the proportion of variance in $y$ that we expect the current sample regression equation to explain in a different sample drawn from the same population. It is equal to $$R^2_S = 1 - \frac{(N - 1)(N - 2)(N + 1)}{(N - K - 1)(N - K - 2)(N)}(1 - R^2)$$
Per independent variable:
• Correlation squared $r^2_k$: the proportion of the total variance in the dependent variable $y$ that is explained by the independent variable $x_k$, not corrected for the other independent variables in the model
• Semi-partial correlation squared $sr^2_k$: the proportion of the total variance in the dependent variable $y$ that is uniquely explained by the independent variable $x_k$, beyond the part that is already explained by the other independent variables in the model
• Partial correlation squared $pr^2_k$: the proportion of the variance in the dependent variable $y$ not explained by the other independent variables, that is uniquely explained by the independent variable $x_k$
-Cohen's $d$:
Standardized difference between the sample mean of the difference scores and $\mu_0$: $$d = \frac{\bar{y} - \mu_0}{s}$$ Indicates how many standard deviations $s$ the sample mean of the difference scores $\bar{y}$ is removed from $\mu_0$
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n.a.n.a.Visual representationn.a.
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ANOVA tablen.a.n.a.n.a.
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n.a.n.a.Equivalent toEquivalent to
--One sample $t$ test on the difference scores
Repeated measures ANOVA with one dichotomous within subjects factor
Example contextExample contextExample contextExample context
Can mental health be predicted from fysical health, economic class, and gender?Is the proportion smokers amongst office workers different from $\pi_0 = .2$?Is the average difference between the mental health scores before and after an intervention different from $\mu_0$ = 0?Does a tv documentary about spiders change whether people are afraid (yes/no) of spiders?
SPSSSPSSSPSSSPSS
Analyze > Regression > Linear...
• Put your dependent variable in the box below Dependent and your independent (predictor) variables in the box below Independent(s)
Analyze > Nonparametric Tests > Legacy Dialogs > Binomial...
• Put your dichotomous variable in the box below Test Variable List
• Fill in the value for $\pi_0$ in the box next to Test Proportion
Analyze > Compare Means > Paired-Samples T Test...
• Put the two paired variables in the boxes below Variable 1 and Variable 2
Analyze > Nonparametric Tests > Legacy Dialogs > 2 Related Samples...
• Put the two paired variables in the boxes below Variable 1 and Variable 2
• Under Test Type, select the McNemar test
JamoviJamoviJamoviJamovi
Regression > Linear Regression
• Put your dependent variable in the box below Dependent Variable and your independent variables of interval/ratio level in the box below Covariates
• If you also have code (dummy) variables as independent variables, you can put these in the box below Covariates as well
• Instead of transforming your categorical independent variable(s) into code variables, you can also put the untransformed categorical independent variables in the box below Factors. Jamovi will then make the code variables for you 'behind the scenes'
Frequencies > 2 Outcomes - Binomial test
• Put your dichotomous variable in the white box at the right
• Fill in the value for $\pi_0$ in the box next to Test value
• Under Hypothesis, select your alternative hypothesis
T-Tests > Paired Samples T-Test
• Put the two paired variables in the box below Paired Variables, one on the left side of the vertical line and one on the right side of the vertical line
• Under Hypothesis, select your alternative hypothesis
Frequencies > Paired Samples - McNemar test
• Put one of the two paired variables in the box below Rows and the other paired variable in the box below Columns
Practice questionsPractice questionsPractice questionsPractice questions