# Regression (OLS) - overview

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Regression (OLS)
One sample $t$ test for the mean
Goodness of fit test
Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test
Independent variablesIndependent variableIndependent variableIndependent variable
One or more quantitative of interval or ratio level and/or one or more categorical with independent groups, transformed into code variablesNoneNoneOne categorical with 2 independent groups
Dependent variableDependent variableDependent variableDependent variable
One quantitative of interval or ratio levelOne quantitative of interval or ratio levelOne categorical with $J$ independent groups ($J \geqslant 2$)One of ordinal level
Null hypothesisNull hypothesisNull hypothesisNull hypothesis
$F$ test for the complete regression model:
• $\beta_1 = \beta_2 = \ldots = \beta_K = 0$
or equivalenty
• The variance explained by all the independent variables together (the complete model) is 0 in the population: $\rho^2 = 0$
$t$ test for individual regression coefficient $\beta_k$:
• $\beta_k = 0$
in the regression equation $\mu_y = \beta_0 + \beta_1 \times x_1 + \beta_2 \times x_2 + \ldots + \beta_K \times x_K$
$\mu = \mu_0$
$\mu$ is the unknown population mean; $\mu_0$ is the population mean according to the null hypothesis
• The population proportions in each of the $J$ conditions are $\pi_1$, $\pi_2$, $\ldots$, $\pi_J$
or equivalently
• The probability of drawing an observation from condition 1 is $\pi_1$, the probability of drawing an observation from condition 2 is $\pi_2$, $\ldots$, the probability of drawing an observation from condition $J$ is $\pi_J$
If the dependent variable is measured on a continuous scale and the shape of the distribution of the dependent variable is the same in both populations:
• The median in population 1 is equal to the median in population 2
Else:
Formulation 1:
• The scores in population 1 are not systematically higher or lower than the scores in population 2
Formulation 2:
• P(an observation from population 1 exceeds an observation from population 2) = P(an observation from population 2 exceeds observation from population 1)
Several different formulations of the null hypothesis can be found in the literature, and we do not agree with all of them. Make sure you (also) learn the one that is given in your text book or by your teacher.
Alternative hypothesisAlternative hypothesisAlternative hypothesisAlternative hypothesis
$F$ test for the complete regression model:
• not all population regression coefficients are 0
or equivalenty
• The variance explained by all the independent variables together (the complete model) is larger than 0 in the population: $\rho^2 > 0$
$t$ test for individual $\beta_k$:
• Two sided: $\beta_k \neq 0$
• Right sided: $\beta_k > 0$
• Left sided: $\beta_k < 0$
Two sided: $\mu \neq \mu_0$
Right sided: $\mu > \mu_0$
Left sided: $\mu < \mu_0$
• The population proportions are not all as specified under the null hypothesis
or equivalently
• The probabilities of drawing an observation from each of the conditions are not all as specified under the null hypothesis
If the dependent variable is measured on a continuous scale and the shape of the distribution of the dependent variable is the same in both populations:
• Two sided: the median in population 1 is not equal to the median in population 2
• Right sided: the median in population 1 is larger than the median in population 2
• Left sided: the median in population 1 is smaller than the median in population 2
Else:
Formulation 1:
• Two sided: The scores in population 1 are systematically higher or lower than the scores in population 2
• Right sided: The scores in population 1 are systematically higher than the scores in population 2
• Left sided: The scores in population 1 are systematically lower than the scores in population 2
Formulation 2:
• Two sided: P(an observation from population 1 exceeds an observation from population 2) $\neq$ P(an observation from population 2 exceeds an observation from population 1)
• Right sided: P(an observation from population 1 exceeds an observation from population 2) > P(an observation from population 2 exceeds an observation from population 1)
• Left sided: P(an observation from population 1 exceeds an observation from population 2) < P(an observation from population 2 exceeds an observation from population 1)
AssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptions
• In the population, the residuals are normally distributed at each combination of values of the independent variables
• In the population, the standard deviation $\sigma$ of the residuals is the same for each combination of values of the independent variables (homoscedasticity)
• In the population, the relationship between the independent variables and the mean of the dependent variable $\mu_y$ is linear. If this linearity assumption holds, the mean of the residuals is 0 for each combination of values of the independent variables
• The residuals are independent of one another
• Variables are measured without error
Also pay attention to:
• Multicollinearity
• Outliers
• Scores are normally distributed in the population
• Sample is a simple random sample from the population. That is, observations are independent of one another
• Sample size is large enough for $X^2$ to be approximately chi-squared distributed. Rule of thumb: all $J$ expected cell counts are 5 or more
• Sample is a simple random sample from the population. That is, observations are independent of one another
Group 1 sample is a simple random sample (SRS) from population 1, group 2 sample is an independent SRS from population 2. That is, within and between groups, observations are independent of one another
Test statisticTest statisticTest statisticTest statistic
$F$ test for the complete regression model:
• \begin{aligned}[t] F &= \dfrac{\sum (\hat{y}_j - \bar{y})^2 / K}{\sum (y_j - \hat{y}_j)^2 / (N - K - 1)}\\ &= \dfrac{\mbox{sum of squares model} / \mbox{degrees of freedom model}}{\mbox{sum of squares error} / \mbox{degrees of freedom error}}\\ &= \dfrac{\mbox{mean square model}}{\mbox{mean square error}} \end{aligned}
where $\hat{y}_j$ is the predicted score on the dependent variable $y$ of subject $j$, $\bar{y}$ is the mean of $y$, $y_j$ is the score on $y$ of subject $j$, $N$ is the total sample size, and $K$ is the number of independent variables
$t$ test for individual $\beta_k$:
• $t = \dfrac{b_k}{SE_{b_k}}$
• If only one independent variable:
$SE_{b_1} = \dfrac{\sqrt{\sum (y_j - \hat{y}_j)^2 / (N - 2)}}{\sqrt{\sum (x_j - \bar{x})^2}} = \dfrac{s}{\sqrt{\sum (x_j - \bar{x})^2}}$, with $s$ the sample standard deviation of the residuals, $x_j$ the score of subject $j$ on the independent variable $x$, and $\bar{x}$ the mean of $x$. For models with more than one independent variable, computing $SE_{b_k}$ becomes complicated
Note 1: mean square model is also known as mean square regression; mean square error is also known as mean square residual
Note 2: if only one independent variable ($K = 1$), the $F$ test for the complete regression model is equivalent to the two sided $t$ test for $\beta_1$
$t = \dfrac{\bar{y} - \mu_0}{s / \sqrt{N}}$
$\bar{y}$ is the sample mean, $\mu_0$ is the population mean according to H0, $s$ is the sample standard deviation, $N$ is the sample size.

The denominator $s / \sqrt{N}$ is the standard error of the sampling distribution of $\bar{y}$. The $t$ value indicates how many standard errors $\bar{y}$ is removed from $\mu_0$
$X^2 = \sum{\frac{(\mbox{observed cell count} - \mbox{expected cell count})^2}{\mbox{expected cell count}}}$
where the expected cell count for one cell = $N \times \pi_j$, the observed cell count is the observed sample count in that same cell, and the sum is over all $J$ cells
Two different types of test statistics can be used; both will result in the same test outcome. The first is the Wilcoxon rank sum statistic $W$:
The second type of test statistic is the Mann-Whitney $U$ statistic:
• $U = W - \dfrac{n_1(n_1 + 1)}{2}$
where $n_1$ is the sample size of group 1

Note: we could just as well base W and U on group 2. This would only 'flip' the right and left sided alternative hypotheses. Also, tables with critical values for $U$ are often based on the smaller of $U$ for group 1 and for group 2.
Sample standard deviation of the residuals $s$n.a.n.a.n.a.
\begin{aligned} s &= \sqrt{\dfrac{\sum (y_j - \hat{y}_j)^2}{N - K - 1}}\\ &= \sqrt{\dfrac{\mbox{sum of squares error}}{\mbox{degrees of freedom error}}}\\ &= \sqrt{\mbox{mean square error}} \end{aligned}---
Sampling distribution of $F$ and of $t$ if H0 were trueSampling distribution of $t$ if H0 were trueSampling distribution of $X^2$ if H0 were trueSampling distribution of $W$ and of $U$ if H0 were true
Sampling distribution of $F$:
• $F$ distribution with $K$ (df model, numerator) and $N - K - 1$ (df error, denominator) degrees of freedom
Sampling distribution of $t$:
• $t$ distribution with $N - K - 1$ (df error) degrees of freedom
$t$ distribution with $N - 1$ degrees of freedomApproximately a chi-squared distribution with $J - 1$ degrees of freedom

Sampling distribution of $W$:
For large samples, $W$ is approximately normally distributed with mean $\mu_W$ and standard deviation $\sigma_W$ if the null hypothesis were true. Here \begin{aligned} \mu_W &= \dfrac{n_1(n_1 + n_2 + 1)}{2}\\ \sigma_W &= \sqrt{\dfrac{n_1 n_2(n_1 + n_2 + 1)}{12}} \end{aligned} Hence, for large samples, the standardized test statistic $$z_W = \dfrac{W - \mu_W}{\sigma_W}\\$$ follows approximately a standard normal distribution if the null hypothesis were true. Note that if your $W$ value is based on group 2, $\mu_W$ becomes $\frac{n_2(n_1 + n_2 + 1)}{2}$.

Sampling distribution of $U$:
For large samples, $U$ is approximately normally distributed with mean $\mu_U$ and standard deviation $\sigma_U$ if the null hypothesis were true. Here \begin{aligned} \mu_U &= \dfrac{n_1 n_2}{2}\\ \sigma_U &= \sqrt{\dfrac{n_1 n_2(n_1 + n_2 + 1)}{12}} \end{aligned} Hence, for large samples, the standardized test statistic $$z_U = \dfrac{U - \mu_U}{\sigma_U}\\$$ follows approximately a standard normal distribution if the null hypothesis were true.

For small samples, the exact distribution of $W$ or $U$ should be used.

Note: the formula for the standard deviations $\sigma_W$ and $\sigma_U$ is more complicated if ties are present in the data.
Significant?Significant?Significant?Significant?
$F$ test:
• Check if $F$ observed in sample is equal to or larger than critical value $F^*$ or
• Find $p$ value corresponding to observed $F$ and check if it is equal to or smaller than $\alpha$
$t$ Test two sided:
$t$ Test right sided:
$t$ Test left sided:
Two sided:
Right sided:
Left sided:
• Check if $X^2$ observed in sample is equal to or larger than critical value $X^{2*}$ or
• Find $p$ value corresponding to observed $X^2$ and check if it is equal to or smaller than $\alpha$
For large samples, the table for standard normal probabilities can be used:
Two sided:
Right sided:
Left sided:
$C\%$ confidence interval for $\beta_k$ and for $\mu_y$; $C\%$ prediction interval for y_{new}$$C\% confidence interval for \mun.a.n.a. Confidence interval for \beta_k: • b_k \pm t^* \times SE_{b_k} • If only one independent variable: SE_{b_1} = \dfrac{\sqrt{\sum (y_j - \hat{y}_j)^2 / (N - 2)}}{\sqrt{\sum (x_j - \bar{x})^2}} = \dfrac{s}{\sqrt{\sum (x_j - \bar{x})^2}} Confidence interval for \mu_y, the population mean of y given the values on the independent variables: • \hat{y} \pm t^* \times SE_{\hat{y}} • If only one independent variable: SE_{\hat{y}} = s \sqrt{\dfrac{1}{N} + \dfrac{(x^* - \bar{x})^2}{\sum (x_j - \bar{x})^2}} Prediction interval for y_{new}, the score on y of a future respondent: • \hat{y} \pm t^* \times SE_{y_{new}} • If only one independent variable: SE_{y_{new}} = s \sqrt{1 + \dfrac{1}{N} + \dfrac{(x^* - \bar{x})^2}{\sum (x_j - \bar{x})^2}} In all formulas, the critical value t^* is the value under the t_{N - K - 1} distribution with the area C / 100 between -t^* and t^* (e.g. t^* = 2.086 for a 95% confidence interval when df = 20). \bar{y} \pm t^* \times \dfrac{s}{\sqrt{N}} where the critical value t^* is the value under the t_{N-1} distribution with the area C / 100 between -t^* and t^* (e.g. t^* = 2.086 for a 95% confidence interval when df = 20) The confidence interval for \mu can also be used as significance test. -- Effect sizeEffect sizen.a.n.a. Complete model: • Proportion variance explained R^2: Proportion variance of the dependent variable y explained by the sample regression equation (the independent variables):$$ \begin{align} R^2 &= \dfrac{\sum (\hat{y}_j - \bar{y})^2}{\sum (y_j - \bar{y})^2}\\ &= \dfrac{\mbox{sum of squares model}}{\mbox{sum of squares total}}\\ &= 1 - \dfrac{\mbox{sum of squares error}}{\mbox{sum of squares total}}\\ &= r(y, \hat{y})^2 \end{align} $$R^2 is the proportion variance explained in the sample by the sample regression equation. It is a positively biased estimate of the proportion variance explained in the population by the population regression equation, \rho^2. If there is only one independent variable, R^2 = r^2: the correlation between the independent variable x and dependent variable y squared. • Wherry's R^2 / shrunken R^2: Corrects for the positive bias in R^2 and is equal to$$R^2_W = 1 - \frac{N - 1}{N - K - 1}(1 - R^2)$$R^2_W is a less biased estimate than R^2 of the proportion variance explained in the population by the population regression equation, \rho^2 • Stein's R^2: Estimates the proportion of variance in y that we expect the current sample regression equation to explain in a different sample drawn from the same population. It is equal to$$R^2_S = 1 - \frac{(N - 1)(N - 2)(N + 1)}{(N - K - 1)(N - K - 2)(N)}(1 - R^2)$$Per independent variable: • Correlation squared r^2_k: the proportion of the total variance in the dependent variable y that is explained by the independent variable x_k, not corrected for the other independent variables in the model • Semi-partial correlation squared sr^2_k: the proportion of the total variance in the dependent variable y that is uniquely explained by the independent variable x_k, beyond the part that is already explained by the other independent variables in the model • Partial correlation squared pr^2_k: the proportion of the variance in the dependent variable y not explained by the other independent variables, that is uniquely explained by the independent variable x_k Cohen's d: Standardized difference between the sample mean and \mu_0:$$d = \frac{\bar{y} - \mu_0}{s}$Indicates how many standard deviations$s$the sample mean$\bar{y}$is removed from$\mu_0$-- n.a.Visual representationn.a.n.a. --- ANOVA tablen.a.n.a.n.a. --- n.a.n.a.n.a.Equivalent to ---If no ties in the data: two sided Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test is equivalent to Kruskal-Wallis test with an independent variable with 2 levels ($I = 2$) Example contextExample contextExample contextExample context Can mental health be predicted from fysical health, economic class, and gender?Is the average mental health score of office workers different from$\mu_0$= 50?Is the proportion of people with a low, moderate, and high social economic status in the population different from$\pi_{low}$= .2,$\pi_{moderate}$= .6, and$\pi_{high}$= .2?Do men tend to score higher on social economic status than women? SPSSSPSSSPSSSPSS Analyze > Regression > Linear... • Put your dependent variable in the box below Dependent and your independent (predictor) variables in the box below Independent(s) Analyze > Compare Means > One-Sample T Test... • Put your variable in the box below Test Variable(s) • Fill in the value for$\mu_0$in the box next to Test Value Analyze > Nonparametric Tests > Legacy Dialogs > Chi-square... • Put your categorical variable in the box below Test Variable List • Fill in the population proportions / probabilities according to$H_0$in the box below Expected Values. If$H_0$states that they are all equal, just pick 'All categories equal' (default) Analyze > Nonparametric Tests > Legacy Dialogs > 2 Independent Samples... • Put your dependent variable in the box below Test Variable List and your independent (grouping) variable in the box below Grouping Variable • Click on the Define Groups... button. If you can't click on it, first click on the grouping variable so its background turns yellow • Fill in the value you have used to indicate your first group in the box next to Group 1, and the value you have used to indicate your second group in the box next to Group 2 • Continue and click OK JamoviJamoviJamoviJamovi Regression > Linear Regression • Put your dependent variable in the box below Dependent Variable and your independent variables of interval/ratio level in the box below Covariates • If you also have code (dummy) variables as independent variables, you can put these in the box below Covariates as well • Instead of transforming your categorical independent variable(s) into code variables, you can also put the untransformed categorical independent variables in the box below Factors. Jamovi will then make the code variables for you 'behind the scenes' T-Tests > One Sample T-Test • Put your variable in the box below Dependent Variables • Under Hypothesis, fill in the value for$\mu_0$in the box next to Test Value, and select your alternative hypothesis Frequencies > N Outcomes -$\chi^2$Goodness of fit • Put your categorical variable in the box below Variable • Click on Expected Proportions and fill in the population proportions / probabilities according to$H_0$in the boxes below Ratio. If$H_0\$ states that they are all equal, you can leave the ratios equal to the default values (1)
T-Tests > Independent Samples T-Test
• Put your dependent variable in the box below Dependent Variables and your independent (grouping) variable in the box below Grouping Variable
• Under Tests, select Mann-Whitney U
• Under Hypothesis, select your alternative hypothesis
Practice questionsPractice questionsPractice questionsPractice questions