# Goodness of fit test - overview

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Goodness of fit test
Two sample $t$ test - equal variances assumed
One sample $z$ test for the mean
Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test
Independent variableIndependent/grouping variableIndependent variableIndependent/grouping variable
NoneOne categorical with 2 independent groupsNoneOne categorical with 2 independent groups
Dependent variableDependent variableDependent variableDependent variable
One categorical with $J$ independent groups ($J \geqslant 2$)One quantitative of interval or ratio levelOne quantitative of interval or ratio levelOne of ordinal level
Null hypothesisNull hypothesisNull hypothesisNull hypothesis
• H0: the population proportions in each of the $J$ conditions are $\pi_1$, $\pi_2$, $\ldots$, $\pi_J$
or equivalently
• H0: the probability of drawing an observation from condition 1 is $\pi_1$, the probability of drawing an observation from condition 2 is $\pi_2$, $\ldots$, the probability of drawing an observation from condition $J$ is $\pi_J$
H0: $\mu_1 = \mu_2$

Here $\mu_1$ is the population mean for group 1, and $\mu_2$ is the population mean for group 2.
H0: $\mu = \mu_0$

Here $\mu$ is the population mean, and $\mu_0$ is the population mean according to the null hypothesis.
If the dependent variable is measured on a continuous scale and the shape of the distribution of the dependent variable is the same in both populations:
• H0: the population median for group 1 is equal to the population median for group 2
Else:
Formulation 1:
• H0: the population scores in group 1 are not systematically higher or lower than the population scores in group 2
Formulation 2:
• H0: P(an observation from population 1 exceeds an observation from population 2) = P(an observation from population 2 exceeds observation from population 1)
Several different formulations of the null hypothesis can be found in the literature, and we do not agree with all of them. Make sure you (also) learn the one that is given in your text book or by your teacher.
Alternative hypothesisAlternative hypothesisAlternative hypothesisAlternative hypothesis
• H1: the population proportions are not all as specified under the null hypothesis
or equivalently
• H1: the probabilities of drawing an observation from each of the conditions are not all as specified under the null hypothesis
H1 two sided: $\mu_1 \neq \mu_2$
H1 right sided: $\mu_1 > \mu_2$
H1 left sided: $\mu_1 < \mu_2$
H1 two sided: $\mu \neq \mu_0$
H1 right sided: $\mu > \mu_0$
H1 left sided: $\mu < \mu_0$
If the dependent variable is measured on a continuous scale and the shape of the distribution of the dependent variable is the same in both populations:
• H1 two sided: the population median for group 1 is not equal to the population median for group 2
• H1 right sided: the population median for group 1 is larger than the population median for group 2
• H1 left sided: the population median for group 1 is smaller than the population median for group 2
Else:
Formulation 1:
• H1 two sided: the population scores in group 1 are systematically higher or lower than the population scores in group 2
• H1 right sided: the population scores in group 1 are systematically higher than the population scores in group 2
• H1 left sided: the population scores in group 1 are systematically lower than the population scores in group 2
Formulation 2:
• H1 two sided: P(an observation from population 1 exceeds an observation from population 2) $\neq$ P(an observation from population 2 exceeds an observation from population 1)
• H1 right sided: P(an observation from population 1 exceeds an observation from population 2) > P(an observation from population 2 exceeds an observation from population 1)
• H1 left sided: P(an observation from population 1 exceeds an observation from population 2) < P(an observation from population 2 exceeds an observation from population 1)
AssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptions
• Sample size is large enough for $X^2$ to be approximately chi-squared distributed. Rule of thumb: all $J$ expected cell counts are 5 or more
• Sample is a simple random sample from the population. That is, observations are independent of one another
• Within each population, the scores on the dependent variable are normally distributed
• The standard deviation of the scores on the dependent variable is the same in both populations: $\sigma_1 = \sigma_2$
• Group 1 sample is a simple random sample (SRS) from population 1, group 2 sample is an independent SRS from population 2. That is, within and between groups, observations are independent of one another
• Scores are normally distributed in the population
• Population standard deviation $\sigma$ is known
• Sample is a simple random sample from the population. That is, observations are independent of one another
• Group 1 sample is a simple random sample (SRS) from population 1, group 2 sample is an independent SRS from population 2. That is, within and between groups, observations are independent of one another
Test statisticTest statisticTest statisticTest statistic
$X^2 = \sum{\frac{(\mbox{observed cell count} - \mbox{expected cell count})^2}{\mbox{expected cell count}}}$
Here the expected cell count for one cell = $N \times \pi_j$, the observed cell count is the observed sample count in that same cell, and the sum is over all $J$ cells.
$t = \dfrac{(\bar{y}_1 - \bar{y}_2) - 0}{s_p\sqrt{\dfrac{1}{n_1} + \dfrac{1}{n_2}}} = \dfrac{\bar{y}_1 - \bar{y}_2}{s_p\sqrt{\dfrac{1}{n_1} + \dfrac{1}{n_2}}}$
Here $\bar{y}_1$ is the sample mean in group 1, $\bar{y}_2$ is the sample mean in group 2, $s_p$ is the pooled standard deviation, $n_1$ is the sample size of group 1, and $n_2$ is the sample size of group 2. The 0 represents the difference in population means according to the null hypothesis.

The denominator $s_p\sqrt{\dfrac{1}{n_1} + \dfrac{1}{n_2}}$ is the standard error of the sampling distribution of $\bar{y}_1 - \bar{y}_2$. The $t$ value indicates how many standard errors $\bar{y}_1 - \bar{y}_2$ is removed from 0.

Note: we could just as well compute $\bar{y}_2 - \bar{y}_1$ in the numerator, but then the left sided alternative becomes $\mu_2 < \mu_1$, and the right sided alternative becomes $\mu_2 > \mu_1$.
$z = \dfrac{\bar{y} - \mu_0}{\sigma / \sqrt{N}}$
Here $\bar{y}$ is the sample mean, $\mu_0$ is the population mean according to the null hypothesis, $\sigma$ is the population standard deviation, and $N$ is the sample size.

The denominator $\sigma / \sqrt{N}$ is the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of $\bar{y}$. The $z$ value indicates how many of these standard deviations $\bar{y}$ is removed from $\mu_0$.
Two different types of test statistics can be used; both will result in the same test outcome. The first is the Wilcoxon rank sum statistic $W$:
The second type of test statistic is the Mann-Whitney $U$ statistic:
• $U = W - \dfrac{n_1(n_1 + 1)}{2}$
where $n_1$ is the sample size of group 1.

Note: we could just as well base W and U on group 2. This would only 'flip' the right and left sided alternative hypotheses. Also, tables with critical values for $U$ are often based on the smaller of $U$ for group 1 and for group 2.
n.a.Pooled standard deviationn.a.n.a.
-$s_p = \sqrt{\dfrac{(n_1 - 1) \times s^2_1 + (n_2 - 1) \times s^2_2}{n_1 + n_2 - 2}}$--
Sampling distribution of $X^2$ if H0 were trueSampling distribution of $t$ if H0 were trueSampling distribution of $z$ if H0 were trueSampling distribution of $W$ and of $U$ if H0 were true
Approximately the chi-squared distribution with $J - 1$ degrees of freedom$t$ distribution with $n_1 + n_2 - 2$ degrees of freedomStandard normal distribution

Sampling distribution of $W$:
For large samples, $W$ is approximately normally distributed with mean $\mu_W$ and standard deviation $\sigma_W$ if the null hypothesis were true. Here \begin{aligned} \mu_W &= \dfrac{n_1(n_1 + n_2 + 1)}{2}\\ \sigma_W &= \sqrt{\dfrac{n_1 n_2(n_1 + n_2 + 1)}{12}} \end{aligned} Hence, for large samples, the standardized test statistic $$z_W = \dfrac{W - \mu_W}{\sigma_W}\\$$ follows approximately the standard normal distribution if the null hypothesis were true. Note that if your $W$ value is based on group 2, $\mu_W$ becomes $\frac{n_2(n_1 + n_2 + 1)}{2}$.

Sampling distribution of $U$:
For large samples, $U$ is approximately normally distributed with mean $\mu_U$ and standard deviation $\sigma_U$ if the null hypothesis were true. Here \begin{aligned} \mu_U &= \dfrac{n_1 n_2}{2}\\ \sigma_U &= \sqrt{\dfrac{n_1 n_2(n_1 + n_2 + 1)}{12}} \end{aligned} Hence, for large samples, the standardized test statistic $$z_U = \dfrac{U - \mu_U}{\sigma_U}\\$$ follows approximately the standard normal distribution if the null hypothesis were true.

For small samples, the exact distribution of $W$ or $U$ should be used.

Note: if ties are present in the data, the formula for the standard deviations $\sigma_W$ and $\sigma_U$ is more complicated.
Significant?Significant?Significant?Significant?
• Check if $X^2$ observed in sample is equal to or larger than critical value $X^{2*}$ or
• Find $p$ value corresponding to observed $X^2$ and check if it is equal to or smaller than $\alpha$
Two sided:
Right sided:
Left sided:
Two sided:
Right sided:
Left sided:
For large samples, the table for standard normal probabilities can be used:
Two sided:
Right sided:
Left sided:
n.a.$C\%$ confidence interval for $\mu_1 - \mu_2$$C\% confidence interval for \mun.a. -(\bar{y}_1 - \bar{y}_2) \pm t^* \times s_p\sqrt{\dfrac{1}{n_1} + \dfrac{1}{n_2}} where the critical value t^* is the value under the t_{n_1 + n_2 - 2} distribution with the area C / 100 between -t^* and t^* (e.g. t^* = 2.086 for a 95% confidence interval when df = 20). The confidence interval for \mu_1 - \mu_2 can also be used as significance test. \bar{y} \pm z^* \times \dfrac{\sigma}{\sqrt{N}} where the critical value z^* is the value under the normal curve with the area C / 100 between -z^* and z^* (e.g. z^* = 1.96 for a 95% confidence interval). The confidence interval for \mu can also be used as significance test. - n.a.Effect sizeEffect sizen.a. -Cohen's d: Standardized difference between the mean in group 1 and in group 2:$$d = \frac{\bar{y}_1 - \bar{y}_2}{s_p}$$Cohen's d indicates how many standard deviations s_p the two sample means are removed from each other. Cohen's d: Standardized difference between the sample mean and \mu_0:$$d = \frac{\bar{y} - \mu_0}{\sigma}$$Cohen's$d$indicates how many standard deviations$\sigma$the sample mean$\bar{y}$is removed from$\mu_0.$- n.a.Visual representationVisual representationn.a. -- n.a.Equivalent ton.a.Equivalent to -One way ANOVA with an independent variable with 2 levels ($I$= 2): • two sided two sample$t$test is equivalent to ANOVA$F$test when$I$= 2 • two sample$t$test is equivalent to$t$test for contrast when$I$= 2 • two sample$t$test is equivalent to$t$test multiple comparisons when$I$= 2 OLS regression with one categorical independent variable with 2 levels: • two sided two sample$t$test is equivalent to$F$test regression model • two sample$t$test is equivalent to$t$test for regression coefficient$\beta_1$-If there are no ties in the data, the two sided Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test is equivalent to the Kruskal-Wallis test with an independent variable with 2 levels ($I$= 2). Example contextExample contextExample contextExample context Is the proportion of people with a low, moderate, and high social economic status in the population different from$\pi_{low} = 0.2,\pi_{moderate} = 0.6,$and$\pi_{high} = 0.2$?Is the average mental health score different between men and women? Assume that in the population, the standard deviation of mental health scores is equal amongst men and women.Is the average mental health score of office workers different from$\mu_0 = 50$? Assume that the standard deviation of the mental health scores in the population is$\sigma = 3.$Do men tend to score higher on social economic status than women? SPSSSPSSn.a.SPSS Analyze > Nonparametric Tests > Legacy Dialogs > Chi-square... • Put your categorical variable in the box below Test Variable List • Fill in the population proportions / probabilities according to$H_0$in the box below Expected Values. If$H_0$states that they are all equal, just pick 'All categories equal' (default) Analyze > Compare Means > Independent-Samples T Test... • Put your dependent (quantitative) variable in the box below Test Variable(s) and your independent (grouping) variable in the box below Grouping Variable • Click on the Define Groups... button. If you can't click on it, first click on the grouping variable so its background turns yellow • Fill in the value you have used to indicate your first group in the box next to Group 1, and the value you have used to indicate your second group in the box next to Group 2 • Continue and click OK -Analyze > Nonparametric Tests > Legacy Dialogs > 2 Independent Samples... • Put your dependent variable in the box below Test Variable List and your independent (grouping) variable in the box below Grouping Variable • Click on the Define Groups... button. If you can't click on it, first click on the grouping variable so its background turns yellow • Fill in the value you have used to indicate your first group in the box next to Group 1, and the value you have used to indicate your second group in the box next to Group 2 • Continue and click OK JamoviJamovin.a.Jamovi Frequencies > N Outcomes -$\chi^2$Goodness of fit • Put your categorical variable in the box below Variable • Click on Expected Proportions and fill in the population proportions / probabilities according to$H_0$in the boxes below Ratio. If$H_0\$ states that they are all equal, you can leave the ratios equal to the default values (1)
T-Tests > Independent Samples T-Test
• Put your dependent (quantitative) variable in the box below Dependent Variables and your independent (grouping) variable in the box below Grouping Variable
• Under Tests, select Student's (selected by default)
• Under Hypothesis, select your alternative hypothesis
-T-Tests > Independent Samples T-Test
• Put your dependent variable in the box below Dependent Variables and your independent (grouping) variable in the box below Grouping Variable
• Under Tests, select Mann-Whitney U
• Under Hypothesis, select your alternative hypothesis
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